You may be hearing a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and how their actions will impact the housing market right now. Here’s why.
The Fed meets again this week to decide the next step with the Federal Funds Rate. That's how much it costs banks to borrow from each other. Now, that’s not the same thing as setting mortgage rates, but mortgage rates can be influenced through this process. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you may be wondering about the downstream impact and when mortgage rates will come down.
Here’s a quick rundown of what you need to know to help you anticipate what’ll happen next. The Fed’s decisions are guided by these three key economic indicators:
Let’s take a look at each one.
You’ve likely noticed prices for everyday goods and services seem to be higher each time you make a purchase at the store. That’s because of inflation – and the Fed wants to see that number come back down so it’s closer to their 2% target.
Right now, it’s still higher than that. But despite a little volatility, inflation has generally been moving in the right direction. It gradually came down over the past two years, and is holding fairly steady right now (see graph below):
The path of inflation – though still not at their target rate – is a big part of the reason why the Fed will likely lower the Fed Funds Rate again this week to make borrowing less expensive, while still ensuring the economy continues to grow.
The Fed is also keeping an eye on how many new jobs are added to the economy each month. They want job growth to slow down a bit before they cut the Federal Funds Rate further. When fewer jobs are created, it shows the economy is still doing well, but gradually cooling off—exactly what they’re aiming for. And that’s what’s happening right now. Reuters says:
“Any doubts the Federal Reserve will go ahead with an interest-rate cut . . . fell away on Friday after a government report showed U.S. employers added fewer workers in October than in any month since December 2020.”
Employers are still hiring, but just not as many positions right now. This shows the job market is starting to slow down after running hot for a while, which is what the Fed wants to see.
The unemployment rate shows the percentage of people who want jobs but can’t find them. A low unemployment rate means most people are working, which is great. However, it can push inflation higher because more people working means more spending—and that makes prices go up.
Many economists consider any unemployment rate below 5% to be as close to full employment as is realistically possible. In the most recent report, unemployment is sitting at 4.1% (see graph below):
Unemployment this low shows the labor market is still strong even as fewer jobs were added to the economy. That’s the balance the Fed is looking for.
Overall, the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see – and that’s why experts say they will likely cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a percentage point this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
If that expectation ends up being correct, that could pave the way for mortgage rates to come down too. But that doesn’t mean they’ll fall immediately. It will take some time. Remember, the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates. Forecasts show mortgage rates will ease more gradually over the course of the next year as long as these economic indicators continue to move in the right direction and the Fed can continue their Federal Funds rate cuts through 2025.
But a change in any one of the factors mentioned here could cause a shift in the market and in the Fed’s actions in the days and months ahead. So, brace for some volatility, and for mortgage rates to respond along the way. As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, notes:
"The trajectory of rates over the coming months will be largely dependent on three key factors: (1) the performance of the labor market, (2) the outcome of the presidential election, and (3) any possible reemergence of inflationary pressure. While volatility has been the theme of mortgage rates over the past several months, we expect stability to reemerge towards the end of November and into early December."
While the Fed’s actions play a part, economic data and market conditions are what really drive mortgage rates. As we move through the rest of 2024 and 2025, expect rates to stabilize or decline gradually, offering more certainty in what has been a volatile market.
You’ve probably noticed one thing if you’re thinking about making a move: the housing market feels a bit unpredictable right now. The truth is, from home prices to mortgage rates, we’re seeing more volatility – and it’s important to understand why.
At a high-level, let’s break down what’s happening and the best way to navigate it.
Factors like economic data, unemployment numbers, decisions coming out of the Federal Reserve (The Fed), and even the presidential election, are creating uncertainty right now – and uncertainty leads to market volatility.
You can see that when you look at what’s happening with mortgage rates. New economic reports and other geopolitical events have an impact and can cause sudden shifts up or down, even though experts still forecast rates will come down overall. We’ve seen that effect play out recently, like when employment and inflation data get released each month.
And as the markets react, these types of updates will continue to have an impact on rates moving forward. As Greg McBride, CFA, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:
“After steadily declining throughout the summer months, I expect more ups and downs to mortgage rates . . . Job market data will be closely watched as well as any clues from the Fed about the extent of upcoming interest rate cuts.”
This is exactly why the projected decline in mortgage rates isn’t going to be a straight line down over the next year. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:
“Rates have shown considerable volatility lately, and may continue to do so . . . Overall, we still expect a downward long-term mortgage rate trend.”
Plus, home prices and the number of homes on the market vary dramatically depending on where you’re looking to buy or sell, which makes it even harder to get a clear picture. In some areas, home prices are rising and inventory is tight, while in others, there are more homes available and it’s leading to more moderate pricing shifts.
As all of this unfolds, understanding what’s happening will help you make the right decisions, whether that’s buying or selling. And there’s one easy way to get that information: from a professional.
While the road ahead may have some bumps and unexpected turns, you don’t have to go it alone. A great agent will keep you up to date on the latest market developments, guide you through any shifts, and help you make smart decisions based on your goals.
For example, as mortgage rates change, professionals (like your agent and a trusted lender) will explain how the shifts impact what you can reasonably plan for in your monthly payment. This will help you see how even a small change in rates can impact your bottom line – that way you don’t lose sight of the big picture even as shifts happen here and there.
And since conditions can vary significantly from one neighborhood to another, your agent will also help you understand the specifics of your market—whether it’s how to navigate competition with other buyers, the number of homes available, or what’s happening with local home prices. Their insights and expertise will help you adapt to any movement in the market.
The housing market may be experiencing some shifts, but don’t let it stop you from making your move. With the support of an experienced real estate agent and a trusted lender, you’ll be ready to navigate the changes and make the most of the opportunities that come your way.
Looking to buy a home but feeling like almost everything is out of reach? Here’s the thing. There’s still a way to become a homeowner, even when affordability seems like a huge roadblock – and it might be with a fixer upper. Let’s dive into why buying a fixer upper could be your ticket to homeownership and how you can make it work.
A fixer upper is a home that’s in livable condition but needs some work. The amount of work varies by home – some may need cosmetic updates like wallpaper removal and new flooring, while others might require more extensive repairs like replacing a roof or updating plumbing.
Because they need some elbow grease, these homes typically have a lower price point, based on local market value. In fact, a survey from StorageCafe explains that fixer uppers generally cost about 29% less than move-in-ready homes.
And that’s why, according to a recent survey, more buyers are considering homes that need a little extra work right now (see below):
If you're looking for an option to get your foot in the door, and you're willing to roll up your sleeves and do a bit of work, a house with untapped potential may be a good option.
Before you buy a home that may need a makeover, here are a few things to keep in mind:
Remember, the perfect home is the one you perfect after buying it. By starting with a fixer upper, you have the opportunity to customize a home to your liking while saving money on the initial purchase price. With careful planning, budgeting, and a little bit of vision, you can turn a house that needs some love into your perfect home.
Real estate agents are great at finding homes with potential. They know the local market and can guide you to homes where smart upgrades can add value. With their help, you’re more likely to find a house that fits your total budget and has room for worthwhile improvements.
In today’s market, where the cost of homeownership can be intimidating, finding a move-in-ready home that fits your budget can feel like a real challenge. But if you’re open to putting in a little work, you can transform a fixer upper into your ideal home over time. A local real estate agent can help you explore what’s possible and find a place that’ll work for you.
Feeling a bit unsure, or even afraid, to move with everything going on right now? The decision to move shouldn’t be scary, it should be exciting. And the best way to eliminate any fear is to work with a pro.
Real estate agents are so much more than just transaction facilitators; they’re trusted guides to help you navigate the complexities of the housing market with confidence and ease. And a great agent can turn what may feel like a daunting process into a manageable—and even enjoyable—experience.
That’s why, in a Bright MLS survey, respondents agreed partnering with an agent is essential and helps cut down on their stress:
Here are just a few examples of why that expertise can give you so much peace of mind.
You may be seeing misleading headlines about a potential market crash, falling prices, and more. And when you’re not an expert yourself, it’s easy to get swept up in the clickbait and let that scare you. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says:
“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”
A real estate agent is there to help you separate fact from fiction and to debunk any headline that does more to terrify than clarify. With their deep understanding of local market trends, home values, inventory levels, and more, they’ll help you feel more confident in your decision.
Is this your first time going through the process as a buyer or a seller? Don’t worry. Your agent will walk you through every step along the way, from the initial conversation all the way to closing day. As NerdWallet explains:
“If it's your first time buying — or selling — you're likely to come across terms you don't recognize and tasks that seem baffling. What's the difference between pending and contingent? Why do you need title insurance? How thoroughly do you need to fill out disclosure forms? Your agent should be able to confidently and competently explain it all.”
And if you’ve done this before, but it’s been a while, an agent will tailor how they explain it all to your previous experience. They won’t bog you down with details, they’ll only give you as much of a refresher as you want and need.
Does the thought of dealing with the back and forth of the transaction make your palms sweaty? Put that anxiety aside. Your agent is a skilled negotiator trained for these exact scenarios. And the best part is, they work for you. So, it’s your goals they’re using that expertise to fight for.
They’ll work to secure the best possible terms for you, whether it’s getting a better price as a homebuyer or negotiating a higher sale price as a seller. This removes the fear of a bad deal or being taken advantage of during the process.
Worried something is going come up that you don’t know how to handle? Rest assured, your agent has you covered.
Agents are skilled problem-solvers. They not only address issues, but they get ahead of them before they become deal-breakers – and that helps keep the process on track. So, if any challenges do pop up, know your agent has the skills and experience necessary to find a solution that works for you.
Don’t let fear or uncertainty hold you back from achieving your goals. With an expert agent by your side, you can move forward with confidence.
No one likes making mistakes, especially when they happen in what’s likely the biggest transaction of your life – buying a home.
That’s why partnering with a trusted agent is so important. Here’s a sneak peek at the most common missteps buyers are making in today’s market and how a great agent will help you steer clear of each one.
Many buyers are trying to time the market by waiting for home prices or mortgage rates to drop. This can be a really risky strategy because there’s so much at play that can have an impact on those things. As Elijah de la Campa, Senior Economist at Redfin, says:
“My advice for buyers is don’t try to time the market. There are a lot of swing factors, like the upcoming jobs report and the presidential election, that could cause the housing market to take unexpected twists and turns. If you find a house you love and can afford to buy it, now’s not a bad time.”
If you’re tempted to stretch your budget a bit further than you should, you’re not alone. A number of buyers are making this mistake right now.
But the truth is, it’s actually really important to avoid overextending your budget, especially when other housing expenses like home insurance and taxes are on the rise. You want to talk to the pros to make sure you understand what’ll really work for you. Bankrate offers this advice:
“Focus on what monthly payment you can afford rather than fixating on the maximum loan amount you qualify for. Just because you can qualify for a $300,000 loan doesn’t mean you can comfortably handle the monthly payments that come with it along with your other financial obligations.”
Saving up for the upfront costs of homeownership takes some careful planning. You’ve got to think about your closing costs, down payment, and more. And if you don’t work with a team of experienced professionals, you could miss out on programs out there that can make a big difference for you. This is happening more than you realize.
According to Realtor.com, almost 80% of first-time buyers qualify for down payment assistance – but only 13% actually take advantage of those programs. So, talk to a lender about your options. Whether you’re buying your first house or your fifth, there may be a program that can help.
This last one may be the most important of all. The very best way to avoid making a mistake that’s going to cost you is to lean on a pro. With the right team of experts, you can easily dodge these missteps.
The good news is you don’t have to deal with any of these headaches. Connect with a local real estate agent so you have a pro on your side who can help you avoid these costly mistakes.
With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.
In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):
Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it's particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.
This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.
The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below):
That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.
If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below):
And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.
So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market.
It's important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.
Even though there are more homes available for sale than there were at this time last year, there are still more buyers than there are houses to choose from. So, know that if you’ve got moving on your mind, your house can really stand out.
There are several key reasons why there aren’t enough homes to go around and understanding them will help you see why the market is working in your favor if you’re ready to make a move.
1. Underproduction of Homes: For years, the industry hasn’t built enough homes to keep up with demand. As Zillow explains:
“In 2022, 1.4 million homes were built — at the time, the best year for home construction since the early stages of the Great Recession. However, the number of U.S. families increased by 1.8 million that year, meaning the country did not even build enough to make a place for the new families, let alone begin chipping away at the deficit that has hampered housing affordability for more than a decade.”
2. Rising Costs: Building materials, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic have all made it harder and more expensive to build homes. This can either limit or stop new home construction in some areas.
3. Regional Imbalances: Some markets are more affected by the shortage of homes than others. Popular and more desirable areas have more people moving in faster than new homes can be built. The number of new building permits issued doesn’t always keep pace with job growth in these regions, and that leads to even tighter markets and higher prices.
According to estimates from Real Estate News, the U.S. is facing a housing shortfall of roughly 3.3 million homes, based on an average of several expert insights (see graph below):
This shows there’s a significant number of homes that need to be built just to meet current demand from buyers. But what about future demand?
According to John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC), over the next 10 years, the U.S. will need about 18 million new homes to meet projected demand, including homes for new households, second homes, and replacements for aging or unusable homes.
So, even though more homes are on the market compared to last year, there still aren’t enough of them to go around. This is where you can really win if you’re ready to sell your house.
If you’re thinking about selling, the shortage of homes for sale means your house is likely to get some serious attention from buyers. It’ll take years to climb out of this inventory deficit, and the market is still very tight. So, when buyers are competing for relatively few homes like they are right now, that creates more interest in the houses that are on the market, putting upward pressure on prices and ultimately working in your favor.
And since every market is different, it’s important to work with a real estate agent who understands local trends. They can help you price your house right and create a strategy to attract the right buyers.
While there are more homes for sale than there were at this time last year, there’s still a shortage overall. And this puts you in the driver’s seat as a seller. Reach out to a trusted real estate agent who can help you take advantage of today’s market.
Even though there are more homes available for sale than there were at this time last year, there are still more buyers than there are houses to choose from. So, know that if you’ve got moving on your mind, your house can really stand out.
There are several key reasons why there aren’t enough homes to go around and understanding them will help you see why the market is working in your favor if you’re ready to make a move.
1. Underproduction of Homes: For years, the industry hasn’t built enough homes to keep up with demand. As Zillow explains:
“In 2022, 1.4 million homes were built — at the time, the best year for home construction since the early stages of the Great Recession. However, the number of U.S. families increased by 1.8 million that year, meaning the country did not even build enough to make a place for the new families, let alone begin chipping away at the deficit that has hampered housing affordability for more than a decade.”
2. Rising Costs: Building materials, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic have all made it harder and more expensive to build homes. This can either limit or stop new home construction in some areas.
3. Regional Imbalances: Some markets are more affected by the shortage of homes than others. Popular and more desirable areas have more people moving in faster than new homes can be built. The number of new building permits issued doesn’t always keep pace with job growth in these regions, and that leads to even tighter markets and higher prices.
According to estimates from Real Estate News, the U.S. is facing a housing shortfall of roughly 3.3 million homes, based on an average of several expert insights (see graph below):
This shows there’s a significant number of homes that need to be built just to meet current demand from buyers. But what about future demand?
According to John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC), over the next 10 years, the U.S. will need about 18 million new homes to meet projected demand, including homes for new households, second homes, and replacements for aging or unusable homes.
So, even though more homes are on the market compared to last year, there still aren’t enough of them to go around. This is where you can really win if you’re ready to sell your house.
If you’re thinking about selling, the shortage of homes for sale means your house is likely to get some serious attention from buyers. It’ll take years to climb out of this inventory deficit, and the market is still very tight. So, when buyers are competing for relatively few homes like they are right now, that creates more interest in the houses that are on the market, putting upward pressure on prices and ultimately working in your favor.
And since every market is different, it’s important to work with a real estate agent who understands local trends. They can help you price your house right and create a strategy to attract the right buyers.
While there are more homes for sale than there were at this time last year, there’s still a shortage overall. And this puts you in the driver’s seat as a seller. Reach out to a trusted real estate agent who can help you take advantage of today’s market.
There are a number of scary myths about homebuying in today’s market. Here’s what you need to know.Prices are not expected to crash, it is possible to buy even with student loan debt, and there are programs that can help you save for a down payment.Don’t let scary myths delay your homebuying plans. Connect with an agent so you have a pro to help you separate the facts from your fears.
